How September could go well for Democrats

September may hold some major benefits for Democrats: awaiting good economic news, the potential of jail for Trump in his conviction sentencing, and much more.

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With the end of the DNC, and us now almost a week into September, Harris looks to be in a solid but narrow lead in the election. In other words, she is the favorite, but not by too much. The same can be said for Democrats more broadly too, with similar chances in the House—and although the Senate itself is a different story—Senate Democrats are still largely holding their ground in basically every presidential battleground. This all tracks with the model at this current moment, now standing at D+4.1 (which is an increase from even just a week ago, at D+3.5).

However, Democrats could see their standing increase even further if some events in September go their way. One event already has done so—at least for the time being—that of Trump’s and the GOP’s continued floundering over Harris and her candidacy. Even ignoring Trump’s occasional bouts of, what is essentially his fanfiction on Biden’s withdrawal, the Republican Party as a whole still has yet to come up with a strong and unified line of attack against her, having so far just stuck to flinging anything at her and Tim Walz to see what sticks (to little success). This, on top of Harris’ arguably unbroken streak of positive media attention since her entry (including the VPsteaks and the DNC), is a gigantic gift to the Democratic Party that they should not ignore, and take full advantage of.

Speaking of the GOP, they may even cause a government shutdown at the end of the month. The House GOP, headed by Mike Johnson, is no closer to passing their own funding bill—much less coming to debate with the Senate on theirs—than they were in July. They basically have not even started yet. Additionally, there is the desire by Republicans to tie their SAVE Act—a bill to mandate proof of citizenship to vote—to a CR, likely sinking any chances of it passing. This, in total, puts us in the position where a federal government shutdown for a good part of October is the likely outcome. However, despite the Democrats’ hold on the Senate and Presidency, this would likely damage Republicans much more, due to their willingness to hold their ground when it comes to the SAVE Act. This is backed up by previous shutdowns, where the uncompromising party—ironically usually Republicans—is hurt far more than other actors. Would this come to pass, especially with its effects going well into October, could mean a significant increase in Democrats’ electoral chances as voters rightfully blame the GOP for the shutdown.

Meanwhile, other possible influences are economic: the potential (likely) interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, and a likely decline in gas prices. Regarding the first, it has been highly speculated that following their last meeting at the end of July, the Fed would probably cut interest rates, mainly due to the accomplished decline in inflation. This has only increased since, as job numbers and unemployment have recently come in worse than expected, fueling possible expectations of an even larger cut to make up for it. Politically speaking, this would be beneficial for Democrats as the incumbent party, as lower interest rates normally have a multitude of economic effects that the average consumer would like. Next, it is likely gasoline prices will decline as the election gets closer. This is not all that unusual, as prices normally go down in the beginning of fall as suppliers switch from the more-expenseive summer blend to the winter blend. However, this usual decline—already a self-explanatory benefit for Democrats and Harris—could be compounded by oil prices’ recent significant decline, in part due to OPEC’s increased production of oil. Both of these could end up bringing Democrats good economic news just as the election hits, something they surely wouldn’t argue against having.

The next event comes on the 10th with the first of (Harris) presidential debates. Obviously, this could go either way. Although, given Trump’s performance in the last debate with Biden—which, while quite poor, was overshadowed by Biden’s own performance—it possibly might not take much on Harris’ end to come out of it with a good result. That’s barring any surprises, especially from Trump himself, who many speculate might lose it during the debate (even to the point of cursing at the vice president). Harris could also fumble it, that is a possibility in the end. No matter what, this is another event, that if goes their way, could undoubtedly expand the Democrats’ lead.

Lastly, and by all means definitely not least, the entire race could thrown into absolute chaos on September 18th with Trump's sentencing. As many of you can recall, this originates from his felony convictions in the falsifying business records trial in NY, where he got 34 of said felony convictions. This sentencing—which was postponed from July 11th (infamously days before the RNC) due to questions from the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling—could possibly land Trump behind bars. Such an event is not all that out of bounds either considering the charge, the sheer number of felonies, and Trump’s behavior since the trial’s conclusion (including, but not limited to: violating gag orders, threats of fleeing the country, threatening various court staff, witnesses, the prosecution, and even the judge himself). Of course, if it actually happens, the figurative 2024 election chessboard would literally be thrown out the window. My guess, however, would be that this ends up handing Democrats the election, if not even more.

This all comes as early voting kicks off tomorrow, with North Carolina sending out absentee ballots. This means that there is less and less time to change people’s minds as more of the vote is locked in. Given that Harris and Democrats currently hold the lead (especially on energy and momentum) and with some further potential benefits in the upcoming days, I would not like to be in the GOP’s shoes right now.